urn:uuid:e33d138e-5276-5a1c-8813-a591d13918ad SocioLens — RO-LD11-05: How much of the fall in AI prices is competition rather than cheaper technology? New versions of this research opportunity and changes to the claims it rests on. 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z SocioLens urn:uuid:ed438383-06c2-5a93-99ac-519c1febda04 Claim LD11-HQ-C14 revised to v1.1 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z What changed: The claim now reports, beside the OpenRouter/a16z figure, the lower open-source token share that Demirer, Fradkin, Tadelis & Peng (NBER Working Paper 34608, December 2025) report from OpenRouter data, and cites that paper as a second source. The OpenRouter/a16z figure is unchanged. Why: A literature check on 13 October 2026 found a second analysis of the same platform, by academic authors with Microsoft and Amazon affiliations, that reports about 25% open-source share by December 2025, not about one-third. Version 1.0 cited only the platform's own report, so a reader could take one-third as settled. The figures were read from the NBER paper by AI agents, not by a person, to the same standard as the rest of this ledger (primary-text reading by AI, no named human expert). urn:uuid:7804cac6-5780-508d-8686-89089d029140 Research opportunity revised to v2: RO-LD11-05 — How much of the fall in AI prices is competition rather than cheaper technology? 2026-10-13T00:00:00Z Literature check added: a second, deeper search for existing work, with its queries, new nearest work and limits. The question and verdict stand. urn:uuid:80f6cb72-490b-5330-83b9-460f5e7d3cb2 New research opportunity: RO-LD11-05 — How much of the fall in AI prices is competition rather than cheaper technology? 2026-10-12T00:00:00Z For language-model inference since 2023, how much of the fall in the price of a fixed capability level reflects lower serving costs (hardware and algorithmic efficiency) and how much reflects narrowing margins under competition, estimated by comparing prices for identical open-weight models across competing hosts with their estimated serving costs and with proprietary models of similar capability?