Living Debates

A living debate changes only by new versions. Each new version says what changed and why, and the old version stays available at its own address. See Versions and corrections.

• LD-01: What kind of thing is generative AI, and does the answer predict anything?
  Researchers, firms, regulators and governments describe generative AI in incompatible terms: a tool, a normal technology, a cultural technology, an agent, a partner in communication, an infrastructure, an investment boom. Which description is best, and does the choice predict anything a researcher could observe?
• LD-02: Aggregate null or distributional shift? Employment
  What are the early labour-market effects of generative AI?
• LD-03: Organizational absorption: Why micro gains do not become macro outcomes
  Experiments find that generative AI saves workers time on many tasks. Why does so little of that show up in firm performance and national productivity, at least so far?
• LD-04: Levelling or hollowing? Skill compression and the reproduction of expertise
  When generative AI helps the least experienced workers most, does it level expertise, or does it hollow out the way expertise is reproduced?
• LD-05: Discretion curtailed, relocated or encoded?
  When public organisations introduce algorithmic, machine-learning or foundation-model systems into administrative decision-making, does human discretion actually shrink?
• LD-06: The evaluation apparatus: Can benchmarks, leaderboards and audits carry the weight placed on them?
  Benchmark scores, leaderboard ranks, model judges, developers' own reports, red-teaming and audits are now used to decide what research is published, which models are bought, which are released and which comply with the law. Can they carry that weight?
• LD-07: AI in the research apparatus
  Under what conditions can foundation-model-mediated social research produce valid knowledge?
• LD-08: Who can know about AI? Epistemic dependence and jurisdiction over the field
  AI firms build the largest models, hold the compute, collect the records of how people use AI, fund research on its effects and decide which outside researchers may test their systems. How independent can research on AI's social effects be under these conditions, and who is gaining the authority to say what AI does to society?
• LD-09: Individual gain, collective narrowing? Does AI make science, creative work and shared knowledge more alike?
  AI tools help individual scientists publish and be cited more, help individual writers produce work that readers rate higher, and give individual users quick answers. Do the same tools make the work of many people more alike, narrow what a field studies and thin out the shared stores of knowledge everyone draws on?
• LD-10: Persuasion, Intermediation & the Information Order
  When, and through which mechanisms, does generative AI change persuasion, information intermediation and the public information environment?
• LD-11: Concentration, Stack & Sovereignty
  Where is power concentrated across the AI stack, through which mechanisms does that concentration matter, and under what conditions can firms, states, researchers or publics reduce dependency?
• LD-12: Regulation-in-Practice: Rights, Compliance & Developmental Steering
  What does AI regulation become after legislation is announced or enacted?