After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD01-SL-C24 (v1.0)

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with qualifiers: source position
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: A claim about agency in deployment
Limitations: A self-report by the organization that owns the measure; web page as served on 16 October 2026; Anthropic models, made by the developer of the model that drafted this debate, are among those measured
Source (as cited): METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026
Source type: Independent research report (recorded as “Research nonprofit post”)
Institutional position: Research nonprofit (METR), reporting on its own measure
Maturity of the evidence: Emerging evidence
Recorded date: 16 October 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026 (Independent research report)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (SOURCE_POSITION) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH SOURCE-POSITION QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
Maturity (coded): EMERGING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD01-SL-C24	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	B — Evidence that could tell the accounts apart	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026	source_ids: SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29
7	SOURCE TYPE	Research nonprofit post	classes: INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Research nonprofit (METR), reporting on its own measure	—
9	SCOPE	METR’s task suite as revised in January 2026; models to late 2025	—
10	DESIGN	Re-estimation after changing the task suite (228 tasks; more long tasks) and the evaluation software, for 14 of 33 models; the model sets before and after overlap but are not identical	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	228 tasks	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Frontier models to late 2025, including Claude Opus 4.5 and GPT-5.1-codex-max	—
13	COMPARATOR	The earlier version of the suite	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Post-2023 doubling time 130.8 days [107, 161] against 165.3 days [129, 211]; METR says the new estimate lies within the earlier confidence interval; most long tasks use estimated rather than measured human times	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	How stable the time-horizon measure is	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A claim about agency in deployment	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	A self-report by the organization that owns the measure; web page as served on 16 October 2026; Anthropic models, made by the developer of the model that drafted this debate, are among those measured	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	LD01-SL-C23	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Not applicable / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Not analysed in this claim	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-01, T4, D4b	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	An independent replication of the trend on a different task suite	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH SOURCE-POSITION QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: SOURCE_POSITION
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-16	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D4b (SUB_AREA)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026” → METR (2026), “Time Horizon 1.1” (SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0) — METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026; class INDEPENDENT_RESEARCH_REPORT (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

What kind of thing is generative AI, and does the answer predict anything? (v0.1) LD-01

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, October 16). After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more [Claim LD01-SL-C24, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld01-sl-c24/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld01_sl_c24_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {After METR revised its task suite and moved its evaluation software from Vivaria to Inspect in January 2026, its estimate of the post-2023 doubling time of AI time horizons moved from 165 to 131 days; METR says the trend “is somewhat sensitive to task composition” and that it had measured human baseline times for only 5 of its 31 tasks of eight hours or more.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-10-16},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld01-sl-c24/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD01-SL-C24, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 ae06b6dd84543bfa8ff067f19fdbff36817a134d39660d3cc054a3fa6dbdfcd5.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 24 — LD01-SL-C24” SHA-256 25f139cbf4ccb4b7abc8fd68711cfe260a56127c27019afa62dc18c1a0b218e3; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C24--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C24 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 24 — LD01-SL-C24 cites "METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-METR-TIME-HORIZON-1-1-2026-01-29--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "METR, “Time Horizon 1.1,” METR blog post, 29 January 2026".