Krokowski and Hirsch-Kreinsen treat AI as “a paradigmatic case of a promising technology” whose future-oriented narratives mobilize resources while application problems and functional limits are “frequently overlooked,” and suggest that its future “could be characterized more by” a path of “routinization” than by the vision of artificial general intelligence.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD01-SL-C31 (v1.0)

Provenance and status

Claim type: Interpretation
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with a qualifier
Verification state: Checked against the abstract of the primary source only. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: A measurement of promises, resources or routinization
Limitations: Only the publisher’s abstract was read; an essay, not an empirical study
Source (as cited): Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025
Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article (recorded as “Peer-reviewed journal article (essay)”)
Institutional position: Academic (affiliation not stated in the Crossref record; funded by Technische Universität Dortmund)
Maturity of the evidence: Emerging evidence
Recorded date: 16 October 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025 (Peer-reviewed journal article)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

This pinned version is also the current version.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): INTERPRETATION (as printed: “INTERPRETATION”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (QUALIFIED) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (ABSTRACT_ONLY)
Source type (coded): PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
Maturity (coded): EMERGING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD01-SL-C31	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Krokowski and Hirsch-Kreinsen treat AI as “a paradigmatic case of a promising technology” whose future-oriented narratives mobilize resources while application problems and functional limits are “frequently overlooked,” and suggest that its future “could be characterized more by” a path of “routinization” than by the vision of artificial general intelligence.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	INTERPRETATION	base_types: INTERPRETATION
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Infrastructure, capital and legal category	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025	source_ids: SRC-SL-KROKOWSKI-HIRSCH-KREINSEN-AI-SOCIETY-2025
7	SOURCE TYPE	Peer-reviewed journal article (essay)	classes: PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Academic (affiliation not stated in the Crossref record; funded by Technische Universität Dortmund)	—
9	SCOPE	Discourse on AI, AGI and generative AI; science and technology studies and innovation research	—
10	DESIGN	Essay	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	Not applicable	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	AI in general; AGI and generative AI as cases	—
13	COMPARATOR	Not applicable	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Promises structure discourse and mobilize resources; skeptical perspectives gain prominence; a path of routinization is suggested as possible	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	How expectations about AI work, and where AI is heading	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	A measurement of promises, resources or routinization	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED ABSTRACT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: ABSTRACT_ONLY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Only the publisher’s abstract was read; an essay, not an empirical study	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Normal technology: LD01-SL-C01	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Not applicable / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Not analysed in this claim	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	LD-01, T4, D7	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Evidence that promises track realized capability closely	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: QUALIFIED
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-10-16	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: LD-01 (LIVING_DEBATE); T4 (TENSION); D7 (DOMAIN)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025” → Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen (2025), “Once promised…” (SRC-SL-KROKOWSKI-HIRSCH-KREINSEN-AI-SOCIETY-2025--v1.0) — Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025; class PEER_REVIEWED_JOURNAL_ARTICLE (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

What kind of thing is generative AI, and does the answer predict anything? (v0.1) LD-01

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, October 16). Krokowski and Hirsch-Kreinsen treat AI as “a paradigmatic case of a promising technology” whose future-oriented narratives mobilize resources while application problems and functional limits are “frequently overlooked,” and suggest that its future “could be characterized more by” a path of “routinization” than by the vision of artificial general intelligence [Claim LD01-SL-C31, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld01-sl-c31/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld01_sl_c31_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Krokowski and Hirsch-Kreinsen treat AI as “a paradigmatic case of a promising technology” whose future-oriented narratives mobilize resources while application problems and functional limits are “frequently overlooked,” and suggest that its future “could be characterized more by” a path of “routinization” than by the vision of artificial general intelligence.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-10-16},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld01-sl-c31/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD01-SL-C31, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 a78a434318b21df08343c0fe5aa278ae00073e096f6fc08386001918f5ec38c6.

Repository-authored inputs (not Drive exports)

SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C31 v1.0 (v1.0) — written in the SocioLens repository by Project Lead (Claude, AI) on 2026-10-16; no Drive identity exists. Authority: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts. Block “ENTRY 31 — LD01-SL-C31” SHA-256 2c81fae0174038ac516ace115112a4e341e24f01778f5851707c09a0ca89e354; fixture fixtures/authored/claims/LD01-SL-C31--v1.0.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the repository-authored claim fixture version (SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C31 v1.0); the first version of a new Claim of the LD-01 debate
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: repository-authored claim "SocioLens claim — LD01-SL-C31 v1.0" (Project Lead (Claude, AI), 2026-10-16); basis: AGENTS.md "Authority" (the Project Lead decides research content within the research-integrity rules) and the Owner's choice in the SocioLens project chat on 16 October 2026 to build the LD-01 debate; a new Claim, first version, written from the project's LD-01 source notes, checked against full texts, official web pages or official abstracts
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-SL-KROKOWSKI-HIRSCH-KREINSEN-AI-SOCIETY-2025--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 31 — LD01-SL-C31 cites "Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025"; the only field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's repository-authored ledger block.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-SL-KROKOWSKI-HIRSCH-KREINSEN-AI-SOCIETY-2025--v1.0 — basis: explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion (Amendment v1.2 §6): the pinned field-6 Source record "Krokowski & Hirsch-Kreinsen, “Once promised, forever believed? An essay on the blind spots of AI promises,” AI & Society, 2025".