Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD02-HQ-C11 (v1.0)

Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect.

Research opportunities this claim motivates

What this claim leaves open for research. Each is a hypothesis about a gap, not a finding.

How much of a firm's AI productivity gain reaches the wages of workers who stay?Instrumented AI adoption in over 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% without short-run employment loss, but the claim is not genAI-specific and does not license wage pass-through, which this design targets.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with qualifiers: working paper, broad ai
Verification state: Checked against the primary source. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: GenAI-specific effect; aggregate employment null; causal wage pass-through
Limitations: Working paper; broad AI; firm-level short-run estimand
Source (as cited): Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026
Source type: Working paper (recorded as “International-institution working paper”)
Institutional position: BIS/EIB research
Maturity of the evidence: Emerging evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026 (Working paper)
Read the original

Version

This is the current version, v1.0. Earlier versions stay available, and their records never change.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (WORKING_PAPER, BROAD_AI) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / BROAD-AI QUALIFIER”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): WORKING_PAPER
Maturity (coded): EMERGING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD02-HQ-C11	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	C — Firm-level reorganisation and labour demand	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026	source_ids: SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325
7	SOURCE TYPE	International-institution working paper	classes: WORKING_PAPER
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	BIS/EIB research	—
9	SCOPE	European non-financial firms with comparable US-peer information	—
10	DESIGN	Matched firm data with AI adoption instrumented by comparable US-peer adoption	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	>12,000 firms; EIBIS–ORBIS	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Broad firm AI adoption, not GenAI-specific	—
13	COMPARATOR	Instrumented non-adopters / lower predicted adoption	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Labour productivity +4%; no adverse short-run employment effect; benefits concentrate in medium/large firms and with complementary investment	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Short-run firm productivity and employment effect of AI adoption	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	GenAI-specific effect; aggregate employment null; causal wage pass-through	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Working paper; broad AI; firm-level short-run estimand	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Complements Nationalbank and task-RCT evidence; differing firm effects are context-specific	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	EU / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Smaller firms gain less; workers in adopting firms have higher wages but pass-through is not isolated	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D1, D2, L-B, L-C	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	GenAI-specific replication or later employment divergence	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH WORKING-PAPER / BROAD-AI QUALIFIER	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: WORKING_PAPER, BROAD_AI
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D1 (DOMAIN); D2 (DOMAIN); L-B (LENS); L-C (LENS)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026” → Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026 (SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0) — Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026; class WORKING_PAPER (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect [Claim LD02-HQ-C11, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld02-hq-c11/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld02_hq_c11_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Instrumented AI adoption among more than 12,000 firms raises labour productivity by about 4\% with no adverse short-run firm-level employment effect.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld02-hq-c11/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD02-HQ-C11, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 dcee92d479260f7384a5ba87db01949e4b10262e0f4455becdc17594c6466981.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1y7Iid5SaEnjKaPZ7ZsSSVj8dASVlSF8b; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 11 — LD02-HQ-C11” SHA-256 b4eb18c8e37b88f83f6c4318be2704f6042a93ec5fdba8aabef7fd79021b3f0c; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r05-ld02-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the locked R05 canonical ledger v1.0; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 1 authorizes completion of its existing canonical claim corpus. This is the first materialized version of this logical Claim, not a research update.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R05 — LD-02 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 11 — LD02-HQ-C11 cites "Aldasoro et al., BIS Working Paper 1325, January 2026"; HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5: this exact frozen field-6 citation segment selects SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 under ruling 4; identity established by B1 lines 71–110; B3 lines 192–247 and the pinned R05 ledger fields 6/7/8.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 — basis: HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld02-t6-20261011T133040Z-01 ruling 5 / Publication System Amendment v1.2 §§4,6: explicit version-pinned public provenance selection of SRC-LD02-ALDASORO-BIS-1325--v1.0 for LD02-HQ-C11--v1.0. Preserve the canonical qualification and independently authorized Source metadata.