Persuasion capability is not the same as realized social influence; population effects require evidence on exposure, per-contact effect, persistence and behavioural transmission.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD10-HQ-C01 (v1.0)

Persuasion capability is not the same as realized social influence; population effects require evidence on exposure, per-contact effect, persistence and behavioural transmission.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Interpretation
Publication status: Eligible for publication
Verification state: SocioLens synthesis across the debate’s sources; there is no single primary source to check it against. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Population-scale political influence from laboratory effect size alone
Limitations: Transmission stages are measured unevenly
Source (as cited): R07 HQ cross-batch synthesis
Source type: Internal SocioLens synthesis, not primary evidence (recorded as “HQ synthesis of multiple source types”)
Institutional position: Mixed
Maturity of the evidence: Mature evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

R07 — HQ Cross-Batch Synthesis & Adjudication v0.1 (Internal SocioLens synthesis, not primary evidence)
This internal synthesis is not published, so there is no original to read.

Version

This is the current version, v1.0. Earlier versions stay available, and their records never change.

Versions: v1.0 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): INTERPRETATION (as printed: “INTERPRETATION”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (as printed: “ELIGIBLE”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY
Source type (coded): SOCIOLENS_SYNTHESIS
Maturity (coded): MATURE

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C01	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	Persuasion capability is not the same as realized social influence; population effects require evidence on exposure, per-contact effect, persistence and behavioural transmission.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	INTERPRETATION	base_types: INTERPRETATION
4	RESEARCH STRAND	Cross-cutting	—
5	MATURITY	MATURE	states: MATURE
6	SOURCE	R07 HQ cross-batch synthesis	source_ids: SRC-R07-HQ-CROSS-BATCH-SYNTHESIS
7	SOURCE TYPE	HQ synthesis of multiple source types	classes: SOCIOLENS_SYNTHESIS
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Mixed	—
9	SCOPE	Generative-AI persuasion and intermediation, 2024–2026	—
10	DESIGN	Cross-source synthesis	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	R07 adjudicated evidence base	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Multiple	—
13	COMPARATOR	Per-contact experiments vs population exposure	—
14	MAIN RESULT	Controlled effects can be large while population reach remains limited or unknown.	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Correct interpretation of evidence chain	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Population-scale political influence from laboratory effect size alone	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Transmission stages are measured unevenly	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	Supported by persuasion RCTs, DNR reach data and Chen scalability study	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	Europe / North America / multilingual secondary coverage	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Prevents high-capability findings from obscuring unequal exposure and access	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, L-C, R-1, R-2, LD-10	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Direct exposure-to-outcome evidence at population scale	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE	state: ELIGIBLE
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); L-C (LENS); R-1 (LENS); R-2 (LENS); LD-10 (LIVING_DEBATE)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“R07 HQ cross-batch synthesis” → R07 — HQ Cross-Batch Synthesis & Adjudication v0.1 (SRC-R07-HQ-CROSS-BATCH-SYNTHESIS--v1.0) — R07 — HQ Cross-Batch Synthesis & Adjudication v0.1; class SOCIOLENS_SYNTHESIS (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Persuasion, Intermediation & the Information Order (v0.1) LD-10

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). Persuasion capability is not the same as realized social influence; population effects require evidence on exposure, per-contact effect, persistence and behavioural transmission [Claim LD10-HQ-C01, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld10-hq-c01/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld10_hq_c01_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {Persuasion capability is not the same as realized social influence; population effects require evidence on exposure, per-contact effect, persistence and behavioural transmission.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld10-hq-c01/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD10-HQ-C01, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 db5218977a5ef3cc9d382ac54d1a1abf81d6f22c8742df8f92c96f2a4fcf9324.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 01 — LD10-HQ-C01 ” SHA-256 6fee0fa2b4dd44b4651da082696a1e133feef9c22588df122a0cc03e3862b263; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = true — basis: SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status for "R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED": "CURRENT."
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-R07-HQ-CROSS-BATCH-SYNTHESIS--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 01 — LD10-HQ-C01 cites "R07 HQ cross-batch synthesis"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S1): R07 Closure Note lines 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151; ledger C01 fields 6/7/8.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-R07-HQ-CROSS-BATCH-SYNTHESIS--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "R07 HQ cross-batch synthesis"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S1): R07 Closure Note lines 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151; ledger C01 fields 6/7/8.