In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.

SocioLens project,

Claim LD10-HQ-C08 (v1.0)

This is an older version. Read the current version, v1.1, or what changed in it.

In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.

Provenance and status

Claim type: Estimate
Publication status: Eligible for publication, with qualifiers: preprint
Verification state: Checked against the primary source; the source is a preprint. Who checked this claim is not recorded for it; claim checks so far were AI-led, and no person has checked claims against their sources.
Does not license: Population-scale influence, face-to-face superiority or election outcomes
Limitations: Paid opt-in text setting; not peer-reviewed
Source (as cited): Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475
Source type: Preprint (recorded as “Preprint”)
Institutional position: Academic + UK AISI
Maturity of the evidence: Emerging evidence
Recorded date: 25 September 2026
Currentness / correction: This is not the current version. No correction or concern is recorded on its sources.

Sources this version cites

Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475 (Preprint)
Read the original

Version

This page shows version v1.0. Its record never changes, even when newer evidence arrives; the site may add a note to the page or withhold a figure not cleared for public use.

NEWER VERSION EXISTS: read the current version, v1.1 (LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1). This version is explicitly superseded by LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1.

Versions: v1.0, v1.1 · current

Raw record: every recorded field, with its coded values

All 25 canonical Claim fields, verbatim, with the coded values derived from them. The plain-language labels above are read from these.

Claim type (coded): ESTIMATE (as printed: “ESTIMATE”)
Publication status (coded): ELIGIBLE (PREPRINT) (as printed: “ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT LABEL”)
Verification state (coded): CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY (PREPRINT)
Source type (coded): PREPRINT
Maturity (coded): EMERGING

#	Canonical field	Canonical value (verbatim)	Normalized (Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2)
1	CLAIM ID	LD10-HQ-C08	—
2	PUBLIC-FACING CLAIM	In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.	—
3	CLAIM TYPE	ESTIMATE	base_types: ESTIMATE
4	RESEARCH STRAND	A — Controlled persuasion	—
5	MATURITY	EMERGING	states: EMERGING
6	SOURCE	Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475	source_ids: SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475
7	SOURCE TYPE	Preprint	classes: PREPRINT
8	INSTITUTIONAL POSITION	Academic + UK AISI	—
9	SCOPE	UK Prolific; 10 policy stances; 2025–26	—
10	DESIGN	Four preregistered RCTs	—
11	SAMPLE / DATASET	18,978 conversations; 6,923 people	—
12	MODEL / TOOL / VERSION	Claude Opus 4.1/4.6, ChatGPT-4o, GPT-5.4, Grok 4.20, Gemini 2.5 Pro	—
13	COMPARATOR	Laypeople, selected laypeople, elite debaters, professional canvassers	—
14	MAIN RESULT	AI +8.2pp vs random laypeople; +5.6pp selected; +4.6pp elite debaters; throughput-constrained vs coached debaters 0.0pp [−1.7,+1.6]	—
15	INFERENTIAL TARGET	Newer-vintage AI-human persuasion gap and throughput mechanism	—
16	DOES NOT LICENSE	Population-scale influence, face-to-face superiority or election outcomes	—
17	VERIFICATION STATE	CONTENT VERIFIED PREPRINT	state: CONTENT_VERIFIED_PRIMARY · qualifiers: PREPRINT · verified_by: UNKNOWN
18	LIMITATIONS	Paid opt-in text setting; not peer-reviewed	—
19	CONTRADICTORY / SUPPORTING SOURCES	C07 older meta-analysis shows vintage contrast	—
20	GEOGRAPHY / LANGUAGE	UK / English	—
21	DISTRIBUTIONAL LEDGER	Frontier-model access and throughput may advantage resource-rich communicators	—
22	R01 / FIELD-MAP LINKS	D7, D3, T1, R-1	—
23	WHAT WOULD CHANGE THIS CLAIM?	Peer-review revision or naturalistic replication	—
24	PUBLICATION STATUS	ELIGIBLE WITH PREPRINT LABEL	state: ELIGIBLE · qualifiers: PREPRINT
25	RECORDED DATE	2026-09-25	—

Field 22 references resolved against Field Map v0.2: D7 (DOMAIN); D3 (DOMAIN); T1 (TENSION); R-1 (LENS)

The sources as recorded, with their record IDs and coded source types:

Pinned Sources (field 6, version-specific)

“Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475” → Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475 (SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0) — Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475; class PREPRINT (explicit public provenance pin)

Cited by Living Debate versions

Persuasion, Intermediation & the Information Order (v0.1) LD-10

Cite this page

SocioLens project. (2026, September 25). In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed [Claim LD10-HQ-C08, version v1.0]. SocioLens. https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld10-hq-c08/v1.0/

@misc{sociolens_ld10_hq_c08_v1_0,
  author = {{SocioLens project}},
  title = {In four preregistered 2025–26 UK experiments, frontier AI out-persuaded strong human text persuaders; the advantage disappeared when AI was constrained to human message length and writing speed.},
  year = {2026},
  date = {2026-09-25},
  howpublished = {\url{https://sociolens-web.pages.dev/claims/ld10-hq-c08/v1.0/}},
  note = {Claim LD10-HQ-C08, version v1.0}
}

The link points to this version, whose record never changes. For a finding, cite the original study as well: SocioLens summarizes research and does not replace it.

Research-of-record provenance

Materialized by sociolens-materializer 0.6.0 at 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z; normalization contract SocioLens — Claim Value Vocabulary v1.0.2 — Pre-Spike Materialization Contract (v1.0.2). Content seal SHA-256 f0668e1b9b31025347126db865c91766ff9d8d19d001785f6aa60bfe9a8f3134.

Frozen Drive-derived inputs

R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0 — LOCKED (v1.0) — Drive ID 1f9tgGnqv80_UyhW0kCgcnTgWNPlx-DYM; revision: NOT_EXPOSED_BY_DRIVE_TEXT_EXPORT; Drive modified ; block “ENTRY 08 — LD10-HQ-C08 ” SHA-256 ed3ed34cba7ee7fdcf72a02238c787ca4c57acc30a2fca5c7bc166f69c2ea767; SocioLens — Programme Status & Authority Register v0.6 status “CURRENT.”; frozen fixture fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical.

Builder decisions (not Drive data)

VERSION = v1.0 — basis: Claim version taken from the canonical ledger artifact version (R07 — LD-10 Canonical Claim Ledger v1.0); Implementation Architecture Selection §5 logical_id/version convention.
CURRENT_POINTER = false — basis: not current: superseded by LD10-HQ-C08--v1.1 (manifest supersedes relation)
FIELD_6_SOURCE_REFERENCE = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0 — basis: field 6 of ENTRY 08 — LD10-HQ-C08 cites "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475"; the frozen field-6 segment of this ClaimVersion's ledger block (fixtures/frozen/r07-ld10-claim-ledger-v1.0-canonical); Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S5): R07 Batch 01 lines 163, 165; ledger C08 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 931 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.
SOURCE_PROVENANCE_PIN = SRC-LD10-HACKENBURG-ARXIV-2606-16475--v1.0 — basis: Issue #5 proof rendering (Architecture Proof Protocol v0.1 AP-08 / Amendment v1.2 §6): explicit version-pinned public provenance of this ClaimVersion — the pinned field-6 Source record "Hackenburg et al. 2026, arXiv:2606.16475"; Drive-derived identity authority (Issue #53 Source inventory, factory-hq decision HQ-ESC-sociolens-ld10-t5-20261011T050405Z-01 ruling 3 inventory S5): R07 Batch 01 lines 163, 165; ledger C08 fields 6/7/8; KEY EVIDENCE line 931 of the locked LD-10 Living Debate.